Implementation of the GTAP emission database in MAGNET; applications at European and global scales

Abstract

World agriculture accounts for approximately 14% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas. The share of  agriculture in total greenhouse gas emissions in the EU 28 increased from 8.7% in 2007 to about 10.3% in 2012. This includes methane and nitrous oxide emissions (European Environment Agency; Gugele et al., 2005; Beach et al., 2008). This increase is mainly explained by emission reductions in the rest of the economy.  Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture  remained limited in the recent past.

Options to reduce emissions in agriculture depends on macro-economic trends, including  international trade, agricultural policies, economic growth and consumption patterns. Global trade patterns will affect the regional distribution of agricultural production and the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions. The ability to introduce cost-effective measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are difficult to assess on a global scale. To tackle this problem there is a need for an interdisciplinary model instrument, in which both knowledge from macro and trade economy and natural sciences are included.

The global equilibrium model MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) is developed by LEI and is an adaptation to the GTAP model (Woltjer & Kuiper, 2014). The main purpose of MAGNET is to provide a globally applied general equilibrium modelling framework, having the standard GTAP model as the core. MAGNET is complemented with the greenhouse gas emission dataset for the year 2007  that is made available by the GTAP consortium. The database includes emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous dioxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄).  N₂O and CH₄ emissions are especially relevant for the agricultural sector. The incorporation of these emissions in MAGNET enables us  to analyse current and  future greenhouse gas emissions under different policies and mitigation measures on a global scale, simultaneously taking into account interactions between the rest of the economy (by sectors) and across regions in the world.

The GTAP emissions dataset estimates the share of European agriculture in total greenhouse gas emissions in the EU 28 to be about 11.5% in 2007. This deviates from total emission figures on Europe as presented by the European Environment Agency (EEA). The presentation will focus on some possible explanations for this difference. We will compare gaps in the dataset in agriculture and the rest of the economy. Next we will report the emission per EU member state in a 2020 baseline scenario. Here we will present percentage differences in changes in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 vis-a-vis a baseyear in 2012.