MACSUR CropM – progress overview

Abstract

Activities in the first 1 ½ years of CropM were related to key issues identified as critical at the beginning of the FACCE MACSUR the knowledge Hub. These include:

• Model intercomparison
• Generation of new data for model improvement
• Methods for scaling and model linking
• Uncertainty analysis
• Building research capacity
• Climate scenario data for crop models

The key ambition of CropM has been to develop scientific excellence on methods for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impact, adaptation and policy on European crop production, agriculture and food security. Much progress has been made in developing a first shared continental assessment and tool for:

• A range of important crops
• Important crop rotations
• Advanced scaling methods
• Advanced link to farm and sector models
• Novel impact uncertainty assessment and reporting
• State-of-the-art scenario construction

A number of concrete studies towards this aim have been launched in CropM workpackages (WPs):

• WP1-2: Two multi-facetted studies on crop rotation, launched in summer 2013
• WP3: comprehensive scaling exercises, launched in March 2013
• WP4: Studies on (a) Climate scenario development, (b) impact response surface method and (c) Extremes, launched in summer 2013
• WP5: Analysis of transect across Europe with temperature effect (Space for Time)

In addition, extended activities related to capacity building including several PhD courses (WP5) workshops (in WPs1-4) and an International Symposium (10-12 Feb, Oslo, Norway) have been organized. Present and future work is and will be focused on framing and advancing crop modelling as integrated part of comprehensive climate risk assessment and modelling of  agricultural systems for food security from farm to supra-national level.