Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling

Matthias Kuhnert


In spatial modelling of Net Primary Productivity (NPP), predictability and uncertainty depends on the availability of input data, as well as on the scale of the available data sets. Therefore, the study presented here quantifies the impact of aggregation effect of input data of different scales for a regional modelling approach using 5 different resolutions. As part of this study, the presentation focuses on the impact of the climate aggregation on the simulation of NPP. The effect is investigated on the model results of 11 different crop and biogeochemical models simulating NPP for wheat and maize for the area of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The focus of the study is on the impact of drought effects across the scales considered. The data are analysed on annual time steps we followed two approaches to investigate the impact of water limitation on primary production: First, two model runs, one considers water limitation and the other one ignores the impacts of water limitation on plant production second, an external definition of dry conditions by a drought index, only considering climate data, enables a separation of grid-cells and years with drought impacts, independent of the model internal functions. The results show hardly any difference between the overall average NPP across the scales, but some variability for the impact of extreme weather conditions on the simulated NPP.

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Co-authors: Kuhnert, Matthias1*; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh1,8; Smith, Pete1; Hoffmann, Holger2; Zhao, Gang2; Constantin, Julie3; Raynal, Helene3; Wallach, Daniel3; Coucheney, Elsa4; Lewan, Elisabet4; Eckersten, Henrik5; Specka, Xenia6; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian6; Nendel, Claas6; Grosz, Balázs7; Dechow, Rene7; Kiese, Ralf9; Haas, Edwin9; Klatt, Steffen9; Teixeira, Edmar10; Bindi, Marco11; Trombi, Giacomo11; Moriondo, Marco12; Doro, Luca13; Roggero, Pier Paolo13; Zhao, Zhigan14; Wang, Enli14; Vanuytrecht, Eline15; Tao, Fulu16; Rötter, Reimund16; Cammarano, Davide17, Asseng, Senthold17; Weihermüller, Lutz18; Siebert, Stefan2; Gaiser, Thomas2; Ewert, Frank2

Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3 UU, Scotland, UK; 2Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation/Crop Science Group, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, 53115 Bonn, DE; 3Equipe MAGE, INRA, 24 Chemin de Borde Rouge – Auzeville CS 5267, 31326 Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, FR; 4Biogeophysics and water quality, Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lennart Hjelms väg 9, 750 07 Uppsala, SE; 5Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Ulls väg 16, 750 07 Uppsala, SE; 6Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, 15374 Müncheberg, DE; 7 Thünen-Institute of Climate-Smart-Agriculture, Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, DE; 8The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8 QH, UK ; 9Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, DE; 10Systems Modelling Team (Sustainable Production Group), The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Canterbury Agriculture & Science Centre, Gerald St, Lincoln 7608, NZ; 11Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences - University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Firenze, IT; 12Marco Moriondo, CNR-Ibimet, Via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy;

Desertification Research Group, Universitá degli Studi di Sassari, Viale Italia 39, 07100 Sassari, IT; 14 CSIRO Land and Water, Clunies Ross Street, Canberra, ACT, AU; 15Division Soil & Water Management, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, PO 2411, 3001 Heverlee, BE; 16Climate Impacts Group, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), 00790 Helsinki, FI; 17Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Frazier Rogers Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA; 18Institute of Bio- & Geosciences Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich, 52425 Jülich, DE

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