Multifractal analysis of meteorological time series to assess climate impact on chosen regions of Europe

Piotr Baranowski


Over the last decades modelling of climate change through the analysis of empirical meteorological data has become of great interest. The standard approach gives satisfactory results only in the climatic zones with extreme dynamics of climate change, thus there is need to develop and apply more subtle methods such as fractal analysis and chaotic evolution analysis of the atmospheric system. The scaling analysis of meteorological time series is complicated because of the presence of localized trends and nonstationarities. The objective of this study was to characterize scaling properties (i.e. statistical self-similarity) of the daily air temperature, wind velocity, relative air humidity, global radiation and precipitation through multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis on data from 31 years for stations located in Finland, Germany, Poland and Spain. The empirical singularity spectra indicated their multifractal structure. The richness of the studied multifractals was evaluated by the width of their spectrum, indicating considerable differences in dynamics and development. The log-log plots of the cumulative distributions of all the studied absolute and normalized meteorological parameters tended to linear functions for high values of the response, indicating that these distributions were consistent with the power law asymptotic behaviour. Additionally, we investigated the type of multifractality that underlies the q-dependence of the generalized Hurst exponent, by analysing the corresponding shuffled and surrogate time series. The results suggest that MFDFA is valuable for assessing the change of climate dynamics.


Authors: Piotr Baranowski1, Jaromir Krzyszczak1, Cezary Sławiński1, Holger Hoffmann2, Jerzy Kozyra3, Anna Nieróbca3, Krzysztof Siwek4, Andrzej Gluza4

Affiliations: 1 The Institute of Agrophysics of Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Doświadczalna 4, 20-631 Lublin, Poland; 2 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Katzenburgweg 5, 53115 Bonn, Germany; 3 Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation, State Research Institute, ul. Czartoryskich 8, 24-100 Pulawy, Poland; 4 Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, UMCS, al. Kraśnicka 2cd, 20-718 Lublin, Poland

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