Assessing modelling approaches for simulating the effect of high temperature stress on yield

Abstract

High temperature events can have a large negative effect on crop yields, and the effects of these events are strongly dependent on not only the maximum temperature but also on the length and timing of these heat stress events. In future climate the likelihood of these types of events are expected to increase and thus make it crucial to be able to correctly assess not only the effect of changes in mean temperature but also the effect of changes in climate extremes. Crop models are often employed to predict yield responses to a changing climate, and traditionally they have not included the effect of heat stress events. In recent years more and more models have come to include the effect of high temperature stress on crop yield.  Here we implement three of these approaches (APSIM, GAEZ and CERES-Wheat) into the Crop-DGVM: LPJ-GUESS and results from an initial sensitivity analysis are presented. Results show a large difference in year to year variability in simulated yield for the different approaches, and also on differences in sensitivity in relation to temperature change.