Uncertainties from Climate Change on Farms and Ecosystem Services of a Grassland Dominated Austrian Landscape

Martin Schönhart

Abstract


MACSUR 1: development of a method to analyse
farm and landscape scale impacts of CC, mitigation
and adaptation effects
– cropland dominated landscape, crop choice and soil
management
– climate model uncertainty
• Now: test and improve the robustness of the method
– grassland landscape, cropland expansion and livestock
– uncertainty analysis
– variability of weather conditions

 

High spatial resolution creates interfaces to disciplinary
models and indicators
• Challenging data & modelling demand
• Increasing productivity can increase intensification pressures
• Threatened permanent (extensive) grasslands and landscape elements, but
• subject to resource constraints, costs and prices
• Future RDP and environmental policy design (e.g. WFD) may need to take
changing productivity into account
• Future research: analyze uncertainties & environmental
impacts
• Ensembles of crop and grassland models
• Sensitivity analysis on economic input parameters
• Qualitative surveys with agricultural experts and farmers


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