Filling gaps: AgMIP scenario results from CAPRI

Abstract

Climate change impacts on food production, socioeconomic changes (population and income growth  in large parts of the world) and biofuel policies affecting demand quantities have risen scientific,  political and public interest in long-term forecasts on food security. Whereas first quantitative analyses  from global economic models are starting to appear (e.g. (von Lampe et al., under review)), similar  studies on smaller regional scales are not yet available. However, acknowledging that climate change  affects crop yields differently across scales and regions (e.g. (Reidsma et al., 2007)) and considering  the specific political setting given through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in Europe, the  MACSUR project focuses on the impact of climate change and socioeconomic changes on European  agriculture and its contribution to global food security. We present a Europe-wide analysis of the  effect of selected climate and socioeconomic scenarios on food security in terms of food prices using  the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact modelling system (CAPRI).