A scenario-neutral approach to understanding the regional land use change and food supply consequences of future climate and socio economic change

Abstract

Europe’s ability to feed its population depends on the balance of agricultural productivity (future  climate, yields and land suitability) and demand (socio-economic and technology change such  as population, food choice, imports, & environmental choices). Given the widely recognised  future uncertainty in both of these, this presentation uses the IMPRESSIONS Integrated  Assessment Platform (IAP), The IAP contains meta-models of optimal cropping and crop and  forest yields derived from the outputs of the previously developed complex models (Audsley et  al; 2015).The profitability of each land use is modelled for every soil in every 10 minute grid across  Europe. Land use in a grid is then allocated based on profit thresholds. The model iterates the  price of six commodity groups until demand is satisfied or cannot be met. The model has been  systematically run with perturbations against the baseline of five key variables: annual  temperature, annual precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, European population, and  finally, plant yield changes due to restrictions or genetic and technological developments. The  land use results for each scenario are aggregated into 8 climatically-distinct regions. Contour  plots are used to display impact response surfaces that demonstrate differing regional sensitivities  and tipping points, affording insights into the regional opportunities and threats that the future  may offer to European agriculture and forestry.