Integrating the impact of climate change, price changes and recent CAP orientation on Mediterranean farming systems

Abstract

It is of interest to compare the possible impact of climate change (CC) on agriculture with thepossible effects of changes in the agricultural policies and regulations, as well as marketconditions. In this regard, recent studies show that the impact of changes in the policies,regulations and market conditions may be even larger than that of the CC and may determinethe changes in land use and livelihood strategies of farms in highly vulnerable areas to CC. Newtechnologies could compensate for the adverse impacts of increased occurrence of negativeconditions. On the other hand, changes in the ratios between commodity and factor pricesinteract with CC, in some cases balancing its impacts, in other cases accentuating them. Inaddition, new market regulation such as the abolishment of the milk quota and many measuresoriginating from the recent orientation of the CAP may contribute to improved adaptation to theCC.In this paper we review the analysis of the impact of CC in the Oristano MACSUR study area, tointegrate the influence of elements, other than CC, on the management and adaptationstrategies of local farming systems. We focus on milk quota abolition, CAP reform, with new directpayments, new price conditions and technological improvements as provided by the CAPRInetwork. The study represents the productive conditions of the area with a discrete stochasticprogramming model specified for its main farms types, irrigated and rainfed. This version of theOristano model allows adjustment of herd and flock characteristics, acreage of tree crops andother structural elements. The assessment verifies the relationship between impact of CC and theinfluence of policy, and of new technological and market conditions.