Impacts of climate change on Scottish beef farms – integrating crop production and economy in a meta-model.

Abstract

This paper explores the impacts of climate change on Scottish beef farms and identify possible adaptation measures available to the farmers that optimises farm outputs under changed climate. It uses an integrated platform of a bio-physical model (SPACSYS) and an economic farm level model (ScotFarm). The SPACSYS model projected physical changes in bio mass of the major crops and grass in Scotland under four scenarios; a baseline scenario (with current climatic conditions) and 3 climate change scenarios (two extremes and one mid-way climate projections under A1B SRES emission scenario). The outputs of this model, specifically, the projected crop and grass yields as well as field time availability (for grazing and machinery use on farm) under all 4 scenarios were fed into ScotFarm to determine financial implication of those changes under each of the climate scenario. This economic model used farm level data taken from Farm Accountancy Survey, 2015 which consisted of 105 specialist beef farms across the country. The model results under the climate change scenarios were compared with the results under the baseline scenario to determine the projected physical, financial impacts of climate change scenario of beef farms. The model also examined the responses of beef farmers which were considered as optimal farm adaptations to maximise farm profits under climate change scenarios.