Future climate change, yield variation, and impacts on farm management: a case study at a pilot regions in Finland

Abstract

Crop production in northern regions such as in Finland is projected to benefit from longergrowing seasons brought by future climate change. However, production is also facing multiplechallenges under more frequent and extreme weather. More frequent drought stress, heat stressand other environment-related constraints may lead to higher yield variability in different regionsand increase the yield risks faced by farmers. Changes in yield potential and relative profitabilitybetween crops caused by climate change is likely to be different in different regions. The purposeof this paper is to develop a method to evaluate the impacts of adaptation and mitigation optionson farms with different socio-economic characteristics. Both socio-economic and biophysicalfactors affect rational decision-making process at a farm level and production decisions. Based onthe results from carefully chosen climate models under three SRES scenarios, together withdifferent market price scenarios, we attempt to identify how future changes in mean yields andyield variation caused by climate change in two regions in Finland may affect local farm landallocation and farming management practice. We study how management choices such as cropchoice, crop rotation, fertilization, crop protection and liming are affected and if these changesare in synergy or in conflict with mitigation. This study contributes to the development ofintegrated modelling methods needed to assess impacts of global changes on farming systems.