Modelling plant disease and pest effects on crop performances.

Abstract

Modelling the effects of plant diseases and pests on crop performance, starting with crop yield, is an important new challenge MACSUR wants to address. We have established a small "Pest and Disease" group within MACSUR, where we address this question, with particular emphasis on wheat and grapevine. In the case of wheat, a reference data set from Denmark is being used as a key reference set for wheat - septoria tritici blotch - leaf rust interaction. In a first step an ensemble of seven wheat growth models of different complexity implement defined mechanisms for damages through pest and diseases using field data of a "pest-free" treatment for crop model calibration and idealised (temporal) patterns of injuries represented by simplified disease progress curves. In a second step field data of non-protected field plots are provided together with disease severity data to test simulations of real disease effects on crop yield loss against observed data. In parallel, we collected information on available data for pest and disease impacts by a questionnaire to evaluate their suitability for crop growth as well as for pest and disease modelling. We shall report our results in this exercise, and outline the approach we envision to (i) continue this work on wheat, and (ii) expand it to other crops such as grapevine.