The impact of climate change on maize phenology in Poland under 10 different RCM scenarios

Abstract

Many of physiological processes that influences yielding are heavily dependent on phenological development. Climate change will impact not only planting and harvesting date of crops but also the length of particular phenological phase. Therefore study of impact of climate change on agriculture should begin with determine how climate change will effect on crop phenology.The aim of the study was to assess how maize phenology will change according to different RCM scenarios. The length of the development stages was estimated by phenological model implemented in HERMES model. The model was calibrated and validated for silage maize varieties FAO 230-250 using 13-year data set (2004-2016) from experimental site, located in Grabów (Masovian Voivodeship, Central Poland). Calibration has been made by establishment - in crop parameter file - measured temperature sum for each development phase.The analyses were performed for the time series from 1971-2050 from RCM scenarios biased, using local experimental data from the station located at experimental site. The RCM simulations were represented by ten Regional Models based on five different Global Models. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) were analysed and compared.Based on RCP4.5 the mean monthly air temperature for period between April and September will increase by 1.1˚C while RCP8.5 predicts 1.2˚C air temperature growth. In dependence on RCM scenario, changes in monthly mean air temperature between the base line period (1971-2020) and future climate (2021-2050) in RCP 4.5 range from 0.5˚C to 1.5˚C. Then according to RCP 8.5 the temperature will increase between 0.6˚C and 1.7˚C. The results demonstrate how to use different RCM and its basing can impact on maize phenology.